February 8, 2023
Key Insights At National Level
Nationwide, home values for combined single-family detached and single-family attached properties increased by 3.9% in January 2023 from January 2022. This is the lowest year-over-year increase since the pandemic started, three years ago.
Month over month, home values went down by 0.6% (non-seasonally adjusted) in January 2023 from December 2022. However, the pace of monthly decrease slowed down from the previous month, likely helped by lower interest rates.
Nationwide, home values are down by 5.5% through the end of January 2023 compared to their June 2022 market peak.
Key Insights At State Level
On a year-over-year basis, there are 9 states and the District of Columbia that have seen an annual decline in home values at the end of January 2023. Idaho continues as the pack leader with -5.6%, followed by Washington DC, Arizona, California, Nevada, Washington, Oregon, Colorado, Louisiana, and Utah.
At +7.5%, Florida no longer has the highest year-over-year increase; rather, it continues to exhibit the sharpest drop since the May 2022 year-over-year peak of +31.3%. The Washington DC area had the sharpest month-over-month drop in January 2023 at -1.8%.
The largest declines from the June 2022 market peak continue to be concentrated in the Western states, as again, Idaho has the biggest drop at -15.6%, followed by Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, Utah, Washington, Oregon, and California, which are all recording 10% or more declines in home values. All states except South Dakota and West Virginia are now in negative territory from the June 2022 peak.
Top 50 CBSA Markets
From the June 2022 market peak, all top 50 markets are still in negative territory at the end of January 2023. San Francisco (CA), at -20.4%, is the first major market to drop below the critical -20% threshold, with San Jose (CA) following closely at -18.6%. In the top 10 decliners, with drops around -10% to -15%, are also Phoenix (AZ), Las Vegas (NV), Sacramento (CA), Seattle (WA), Denver (CO), San Diego (CA), Portland (OR) and Austin (TX).
Over the last four weeks, the Tampa (FL) and San Jose (CA) markets recorded the largest declines, around -1.8%. There are 7 markets out of 50 that seem to be bouncing back into positive territory over the last four weeks, with Richmond (VA) leading the pack at +0.7%.
Why TerraIndex™ HPI
Our Home Price Index (HPI) is based on the proprietary Quantarium Valuation Model (QVM) value estimates for more than 100 million residential U.S. homes. QVM has been tested extensively in the last 5 years by some of the top third-party AVM testing agencies in the U.S. and has been consistently ranked at the top for both Accuracy and Hit Rate performance metrics. QVM re-computes the estimated values for the entire national footprint on a weekly basis, along with HPIs at various geography levels – from State, County, CBSA down to Zip Code. That allows TerraIndex™ HPI to provide the most current market insights, being weeks faster than most other housing indices in the U.S.
The report for a given month is usually available on the second Wednesday of the following month, for example HPIs for the month of December 2022 were made available on Wednesday, January 11, 2023.
Located in Bellevue, WA, Quantarium was founded by a team of leading scientists and Ph.D.’s. The company has designed and developed an innovative and enabling set of AI and Visual Technologies currently being deployed across multiple real estate industry sectors. Quantarium is one of the most accurate sources of property insights for over 158 million U.S. properties and trusted by major mortgage lenders, financial institutes, builders, direct marketing agencies, and real estate professionals across the nation. With a technology suite that is different in kind, then degree, the company’s products and services uncover and capitalize on the core DNA of vertical industries. From genetic modeling property valuations and markets that understand and interpret real estate data as expressed through synthetic future populations, through to CV adjusted values, Quantarium offers real AI to drive real value.