December 13, 2023
Key Insights At National Level
U.S. home values for combined single-family detached and single-family attached properties increased by 4.6% in November 2023 from the same month last year. Home values are still expected to finish 2023 with an annual growth rate of around 5%.
On a month-over-month basis, non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) home values decreased by -0.5% in November 2023, continuing to move down from the previous month. On a seasonally adjusted basis, home values were mostly flat at 0.1% in November.
Nationwide, home values continue to show some resiliency, considering the current environment with historically high mortgage rates and slow buyer demand. However, the recent month-over-month numbers are trending below historical averages.
Key Insights At State Level
On a year-over-year basis, only the District of Columbia still shows meaningful home value depreciation in November 2023. Connecticut, New Jersey, Rhode Island and New York recorded strong annual home value growth.
On a month-over-month basis, almost 80% of the states show non-seasonally adjusted home value depreciation in November 2023. The District of Columbia shows the highest depreciation rate at -1.6%, while New York and West Virginia recorded increases of 1.2%.
Home values were mainly flat across most of the states during October. However, that trend changed quickly in November, when the median month-over-month home value change by state reached -0.7%, moving from -0.3% just a month ago.
Top 50 CBSA Markets
On a year-over-year basis, only four out of the top 50 CBSA markets show home value depreciation, with Austin still standing out at -4.6%. At the other end, Cincinnati (OH) and Hartford (CT) recorded the strongest annual home value growth of above 10%.
On a month-over-month basis, 43 out of the top 50 markets recorded non-seasonally adjusted home value decreases during November 2023. Only Cleveland (OH), Richmond (VA) and New York (NY) show some meaningful home value appreciation.
Home values in most markets started to depreciate at an accelerated rate recently. The median monthly home value change among the top 50 markets moved from -0.3% last month to -0.7% in November, mirroring the dynamic observed at state level.
Why TerraIndex™ HPI
Our Home Price Index (HPI) is based on the proprietary Quantarium Valuation Model (QVM) value estimates for more than 100 million residential U.S. homes. QVM has been tested extensively in the last 5 years by some of the top third-party AVM testing agencies in the U.S. and has been consistently ranked at the top for both Accuracy and Hit Rate performance metrics. QVM was also recently approved by Fitch Ratings for Wall Street transactions. You can read the announcement here.
QVM re-computes the estimated values for the entire national footprint on a weekly basis, along with HPIs at various geography levels – from State, County, CBSA, down to Zip Code and Census Tract. Furthermore, the HPIs produced on any given date are based on proprietary valuation models which include over 90% of all sales transactions that will have been eventually reported through a four-week rolling period ending that date, taking advantage of Quantarium’s industry leading Data Services Platform (QDSP) to reduce the processing time lag to an absolute minimum. That allows Quantarium to provide the most current market insights, weeks faster than most other housing indices in the U.S. Learn more about TerraIndex™ HPI here.
The report for a given month is usually available on the second Wednesday of the following month, for example HPIs for the month of December 2022 were made available on Wednesday, January 11, 2023.
Located in Bellevue, WA, Quantarium was founded by a team of leading scientists and Ph.D.’s. The company has designed and developed an innovative and enabling set of AI and Visual Technologies currently being deployed across multiple real estate industry sectors. Quantarium is one of the most accurate sources of property insights for over 158 million U.S. properties and trusted by major mortgage lenders, financial institutes, builders, direct marketing agencies, and real estate professionals across the nation. With a technology suite that is different in kind, then degree, the company’s products and services uncover and capitalize on the core DNA of vertical industries. From genetic modeling property valuations and markets that understand and interpret real estate data as expressed through synthetic future populations, through to CV adjusted values, Quantarium offers real AI to drive real value.