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Key Insights At National Level
U.S. home values for combined single-family detached and single-family attached properties increased by 5.5% in January 2024 from the same month last year. This could be one of the highest year-over-year readings in 2024 if interest rates stay elevated, considering the price gains recorded in 2023.
However, on a month-over-month basis, non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) home values decreased by -0.4% in January, below historical averages for this time of the year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, home values were basically flat from the previous month.
Nationwide, home values continue to be resilient and are not falling much despite record high interest rates, being helped by low inventories of houses for sale. However, the recent month-over-month numbers are trending below historical averages and this balance could change going forward.
Valuation Model Datasheet
Key Insights At State Level
On a year-over-year basis, all states are in positive territory at the end of January 2024. Rhode Island, New Jersey, Wisconsin, Connecticut and New York recorded strong annual home value growth of above 10%.
On a month-over-month basis, two thirds of the states show non-seasonally adjusted home value depreciation in January 2024. Rhode Island continues to show the strongest home value growth while Louisiana stands at the other end of the spectrum.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the median month-over-month home value change by state was around -0.4% in January, slightly better than -0.5% recorded in the previous month. The pattern for the first month of 2024 is very similar to last month.
Top 50 CBSA Markets
On a year-over-year basis, Austin (TX) continues to show the worst performance out of the top 50 CBSA markets but New Orleans (LA) has been falling hard recently and it is getting close. At the other end, Hartford (CT) and Providence (RI) continue to exhibit the strongest annual home value growth.
On a month-over-month basis, the non-seasonally adjusted home values in most markets still decreased in January 2024, although the median monthly home value change among the top 50 markets moved to -0.3% from -0.6% in the previous month.
Over the last few months, we have seen strong home value appreciation in some of the western markets, especially those in California. For example, Los Angeles (CA), San Jose (CA) and San Diego (CA) are getting close again to around 10% annual home value growth.
Why TerraIndex™ HPI
Our Home Price Index (HPI) is based on the proprietary Quantarium Valuation Model (QVM) value estimates for more than 100 million residential U.S. homes. QVM has been tested extensively in the last 5 years by some of the top third-party AVM testing agencies in the U.S. and has been consistently ranked at the top for both Accuracy and Hit Rate performance metrics. QVM was also recently approved by Fitch Ratings for Wall Street transactions. You can read the announcement here.
QVM re-computes the estimated values for the entire national footprint on a weekly basis, along with HPIs at various geography levels – from State, County, CBSA, down to Zip Code and Census Tract. Furthermore, the HPIs produced on any given date are based on proprietary valuation models which include over 90% of all sales transactions that will have been eventually reported through a four-week rolling period ending that date, taking advantage of Quantarium’s industry leading Data Services Platform (QDSP) to reduce the processing time lag to an absolute minimum. That allows Quantarium to provide the most current market insights, weeks faster than most other housing indices in the U.S. Learn more about TerraIndex™ HPI here.
The report for a given month is usually available on the second Wednesday of the following month, for example HPIs for the month of December 2022 were made available on Wednesday, January 11, 2023.
About Quantarium
Located in Bellevue, WA, Quantarium was founded by a team of leading scientists and Ph.D.’s. The company has designed and developed an innovative and enabling set of AI and Visual Technologies currently being deployed across multiple real estate industry sectors. Quantarium is one of the most accurate sources of property insights for over 158 million U.S. properties and trusted by major mortgage lenders, financial institutes, builders, direct marketing agencies, and real estate professionals across the nation. With a technology suite that is different in kind, then degree, the company’s products and services uncover and capitalize on the core DNA of vertical industries. From genetic modeling property valuations and markets that understand and interpret real estate data as expressed through synthetic future populations, through to CV adjusted values, Quantarium offers real AI to drive real value.
For business inquiries, please contact us at 424.210.8847 or discover@quantarium.com.
