January 10, 2024
Key Insights At National Level
U.S. home values for combined single-family detached and single-family attached properties increased by 5.3% in December 2023 from December 2022, driven by historically low inventory levels and the depreciation trends experienced in the second half of 2022.
On a month-over-month basis, non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) home values decreased by -0.4% in December 2023. However, on a seasonally adjusted basis, home values barely changed in December at +0.1%, in line with the previous month.
Nationwide, home values proved to be surprisingly resilient through the end of 2023. It seems that the highest mortgage rates in more than 20 years were balanced out by very low inventories, keeping home value movements within normal historical levels.
Key Insights At State Level
On a year-over-year basis, all states (except the District of Columbia) show home value appreciation through the end of 2023. Rhode Island, New York, and New Jersey recorded the strongest annual home value growth of above 10%.
Month over month, about 70% of the states show non-seasonally adjusted home value depreciation in December 2023. Massachusetts, Vermont, Montana, and Delaware home values dropped more than 1.5%, but most other states did not move much.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the median month-over-month home value change by state was around -0.5% in December, which is an improvement from -0.7% registered in November suggesting a slight market shift.
Top 50 CBSA Markets
On a year-over-year basis, Austin is the only outlier out of the top 50 CBSA markets, still showing home value depreciation of more than 4% in 2023. Hartford (CT), Providence (RI), and Cincinnati (OH) finished the year with strong annual increases of above 10%.
On a month-over-month basis, 43 out of the top 50 markets recorded non-seasonally adjusted home value depreciation during December 2023. Los Angeles (CA), Riverside (CA), Richmond (VA), and Cleveland (OH) were the only markets in the positive territory.
While non-seasonally adjusted home values in most markets still decreased in December 2023, there seems to be some slight improvement. The median monthly home value change among the top 50 markets moved to -0.6% from -0.7% last month.
Why TerraIndex™ HPI
Our Home Price Index (HPI) is based on the proprietary Quantarium Valuation Model (QVM) value estimates for more than 100 million residential U.S. homes. QVM has been tested extensively in the last 5 years by some of the top third-party AVM testing agencies in the U.S. and has been consistently ranked at the top for both Accuracy and Hit Rate performance metrics. QVM was also recently approved by Fitch Ratings for Wall Street transactions. You can read the announcement here.
QVM re-computes the estimated values for the entire national footprint on a weekly basis, along with HPIs at various geography levels – from State, County, CBSA, down to Zip Code and Census Tract. Furthermore, the HPIs produced on any given date are based on proprietary valuation models which include over 90% of all sales transactions that will have been eventually reported through a four-week rolling period ending that date, taking advantage of Quantarium’s industry leading Data Services Platform (QDSP) to reduce the processing time lag to an absolute minimum. That allows Quantarium to provide the most current market insights, weeks faster than most other housing indices in the U.S. Learn more about TerraIndex™ HPI here.
The report for a given month is usually available on the second Wednesday of the following month, for example HPIs for the month of December 2022 were made available on Wednesday, January 11, 2023.
Located in Bellevue, WA, Quantarium was founded by a team of leading scientists and Ph.D.’s. The company has designed and developed an innovative and enabling set of AI and Visual Technologies currently being deployed across multiple real estate industry sectors. Quantarium is one of the most accurate sources of property insights for over 158 million U.S. properties and trusted by major mortgage lenders, financial institutes, builders, direct marketing agencies, and real estate professionals across the nation. With a technology suite that is different in kind, then degree, the company’s products and services uncover and capitalize on the core DNA of vertical industries. From genetic modeling property valuations and markets that understand and interpret real estate data as expressed through synthetic future populations, through to CV adjusted values, Quantarium offers real AI to drive real value.