Key Insights At National Level
U.S. home values for combined single-family detached and single-family attached properties rose by just 1.3% on a year-over-year basis in July 2025, marking the seventh consecutive month of slowing annual growth.
Month over month, non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) home values declined by 0.3% in July, the first negative reading since January. Seasonally adjusted figures also showed a 0.3% decrease.
Modest declines in home prices, coupled with recent easing in mortgage rates may improve affordability in the second half of 2025. However, this may not be sufficient to draw buyers back into the market during the slow season of the year.
Valuation Model Datasheet
Key Insights At State Level
While the national market shows broad deceleration, regional trends reveal sharper divergences. Year over year, the District of Columbia, Texas, Florida, Arizona, Colorado, and California experienced annual depreciation in July 2025. In contrast, Wisconsin and Connecticut continued to show strong annual growth.
On a month-over-month basis, two-thirds of U.S. states were in negative territory in July 2025, a reversal from the previous month, when most states still showed positive growth. West Virginia was the only state to record home value appreciation above 1%.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the median month-over-month change in home values turned negative in July 2025, declining to -0.3% from +0.4% last month. This shift is somewhat unexpected, given that it occurred during the typically strong summer season.
Top 50 CBSA Markets
On a year-over-year basis, one-third of the top 50 CBSA markets recorded home value depreciation through July 2025. North Port – Sarasota (FL) and Austin (TX) still stand apart with the largest annual declines. On the other end of the spectrum, Hartford (CT), Milwaukee (WI) and Oklahoma City (OK) posted solid annual home value growth, each exceeding 6%.
On a month-over-month basis, over 80% of the top 50 CBSA markets were in negative territory on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. Most major western markets are now experiencing home value losses, led by San Francisco (CA), San Jose (CA) and Seattle (WA). All major markets in California recorded home value depreciation in July 2025.
Home value depreciation continues to spread across the country, particularly through the western markets. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the median month-over-month home value change among the top 50 CBSA markets fell sharply into negative territory in July 2025, dropping to -0.6%, from +0.2% just a month earlier.
Why TerraIndex™ HPI
Our Home Price Index (HPI) is based on the proprietary Quantarium Valuation Model (QVM) value estimates for more than 100 million residential U.S. homes. QVM has been tested extensively in the last 5 years by some of the top third-party AVM testing agencies in the U.S. and has been consistently ranked at the top for both Accuracy and Hit Rate performance metrics. QVM was also recently approved by Fitch Ratings for Wall Street transactions. You can read the announcement here.
QVM re-computes the estimated values for the entire national footprint on a weekly basis, along with HPIs at various geography levels – from State, County, CBSA, down to Zip Code and Census Tract. Furthermore, the HPIs produced on any given date are based on proprietary valuation models which include over 90% of all sales transactions that will have been eventually reported through a four-week rolling period ending that date, taking advantage of Quantarium’s industry leading Data Services Platform (QDSP) to reduce the processing time lag to an absolute minimum. That allows Quantarium to provide the most current market insights, weeks faster than most other housing indices in the U.S. Learn more about TerraIndex™ HPI here.
The report for a given month is usually available on the second Wednesday of the following month, for example HPIs for the month of December 2022 were made available on Wednesday, January 11, 2023.
About Quantarium
Located in Bellevue, WA, Quantarium was founded by a team of leading scientists and Ph.D.’s. The company has designed and developed an innovative and enabling set of AI and Visual Technologies currently being deployed across multiple real estate industry sectors. Quantarium is one of the most accurate sources of property insights for over 158 million U.S. properties and trusted by major mortgage lenders, financial institutes, builders, direct marketing agencies, and real estate professionals across the nation. With a technology suite that is different in kind, then degree, the company’s products and services uncover and capitalize on the core DNA of vertical industries. From genetic modeling property valuations and markets that understand and interpret real estate data as expressed through synthetic future populations, through to CV adjusted values, Quantarium offers real AI to drive real value.
For business inquiries, please contact us at 424.210.8847 or discover@quantarium.com.
