October 11, 2023
Key Insights At National Level
U.S. home values for combined single-family detached and single-family attached properties increased by 3.5% in September 2023 from September 2022. Given that home values depreciated by around -2.5% in Q4 2022, this could boost the upcoming year-over-year Q4 2023 numbers.
On a month-over-month basis, non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) home values slightly decreased by -0.1% in September 2023, the first sign of depreciation since January. On a seasonally adjusted basis, home values increased by 0.3%, staying in positive territory.
Nationwide, home values proved to be resilient through the end of Q3 2023, sticking around record high levels during a period with the highest mortgage rates and lowest inventory levels in decades. The last quarter of the year will challenge that resiliency.
Key Insights At State Level
On a year-over-year basis, only four states and the District of Columbia still show meaningful depreciation between -1% and -3% in September 2023. At the other end of the spectrum, Wisconsin and Connecticut home value increased by around 10% year over year.
However, on a month-over-month basis, about half of the states show non-seasonally adjusted home value decreases for September 2023. The biggest monthly home value declines were recorded by Colorado (-1.2%), Oregon (-1.0%) and Washington (-0.9%).
Most of the western states that had registered significant home value depreciation in Q4 2022 followed by a solid recovery through most of 2023 are now going back into negative territory on a non-seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis.
Top 50 CBSA Markets
Year over year, about one in four top 50 CBSA markets experienced annual home value depreciation. Austin (TX) continued to be an outlier at -8.7% while all other annual decliners were below -3%. On the other hand, Hartford (CT), Milwaukee (WI) and Cincinnati (OH) maintained their lead with year-over-year increases of about 10%.
On a month-over-month basis, two out of three top 50 CBSA markets recorded non-seasonally adjusted price decreases in September 2023. The median monthly home value change among the top 50 markets moved into negative territory (-0.2%) for the first time since January 2023.
The home value trends observed over the last two months seem to indicate a market shift coming up. Aside from the seasonal market behavior, home values in a majority of markets started to depreciate at a pace beyond historical averages, in stark contrast to two months ago when all top 50 markets still showed monthly home value increases.
Why TerraIndex™ HPI
Our Home Price Index (HPI) is based on the proprietary Quantarium Valuation Model (QVM) value estimates for more than 100 million residential U.S. homes. QVM has been tested extensively in the last 5 years by some of the top third-party AVM testing agencies in the U.S. and has been consistently ranked at the top for both Accuracy and Hit Rate performance metrics. QVM was also recently approved by Fitch Ratings for Wall Street transactions. You can read the announcement here.
QVM re-computes the estimated values for the entire national footprint on a weekly basis, along with HPIs at various geography levels – from State, County, CBSA, down to Zip Code and Census Tract. Furthermore, the HPIs produced on any given date are based on proprietary valuation models which include over 90% of all sales transactions that will have been eventually reported through a four-week rolling period ending that date, taking advantage of Quantarium’s industry leading Data Services Platform (QDSP) to reduce the processing time lag to an absolute minimum. That allows Quantarium to provide the most current market insights, weeks faster than most other housing indices in the U.S. Learn more about TerraIndex™ HPI here.
The report for a given month is usually available on the second Wednesday of the following month, for example HPIs for the month of December 2022 were made available on Wednesday, January 11, 2023.
Located in Bellevue, WA, Quantarium was founded by a team of leading scientists and Ph.D.’s. The company has designed and developed an innovative and enabling set of AI and Visual Technologies currently being deployed across multiple real estate industry sectors. Quantarium is one of the most accurate sources of property insights for over 158 million U.S. properties and trusted by major mortgage lenders, financial institutes, builders, direct marketing agencies, and real estate professionals across the nation. With a technology suite that is different in kind, then degree, the company’s products and services uncover and capitalize on the core DNA of vertical industries. From genetic modeling property valuations and markets that understand and interpret real estate data as expressed through synthetic future populations, through to CV adjusted values, Quantarium offers real AI to drive real value.