November 8, 2023
Key Insights At National Level
On a year-over-year basis, U.S. home values for combined single-family detached and single-family attached properties increased by 4.0% in October 2023, helped by historically low inventory levels and the steep depreciation trends experienced last year.
On a month-over-month basis, non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) home values decreased by -0.3% in October 2023, moving down but at a much slower pace than during the same period last year. Seasonally adjusted home values show a 0.3% increase in October.
Nationwide, home values continue to be resilient and are not falling much despite record high interest rates and slow buyer demand. If the current trends persist, home values could finish 2023 with an annual growth rate of around 5%.
Key Insights At State Level
On a year-over-year basis, Utah, Colorado, Idaho and the District of Columbia still show home value depreciation through October 2023. Wisconsin, Rhode Island, Connecticut and New Jersey recorded the strongest home value growth year over year.
On a month-over-month basis, only one third of the states show non-seasonally adjusted home value increases for October 2023. Mississippi, Arkansas, West Viriginia, Delaware and the District of Columbia have recorded home value decreases of more than 1%.
Home values have been mainly flat across most of the states during October 2023. In fact, 29 states had month-over-month home value changes within +/- 0.5%. That’s in contrast to Fall 2022, when most states registered significant home value depreciation.
Top 50 CBSA Markets
On a year-over-year basis, six out of the top 50 CBSA markets still experience meaningful home value depreciation, with Austin standing out again at -7.3%, while all others are within -2%. On the other side, Hartford (CT), Cincinnati (OH) and Milwaukee (WI) continue to record the strongest annual home value growth.
On a month-over-month basis, only seven out of the top 50 markets recorded non-seasonally adjusted home value increases during October 2023. At the other end of the spectrum, Pittsburgh (PA) and New Orleans (LA) are the only markets with a monthly home value depreciation beyond 1%.
As also noticed at the state level, home values cooled down and are not moving significantly—48 out of the top 50 markets have seen home value changes between +/- 0.8% on a non-seasonally adjusted basis in October. The median monthly home value change was -0.3%, barely changed from last month.
Why TerraIndex™ HPI
Our Home Price Index (HPI) is based on the proprietary Quantarium Valuation Model (QVM) value estimates for more than 100 million residential U.S. homes. QVM has been tested extensively in the last 5 years by some of the top third-party AVM testing agencies in the U.S. and has been consistently ranked at the top for both Accuracy and Hit Rate performance metrics. QVM was also recently approved by Fitch Ratings for Wall Street transactions. You can read the announcement here.
QVM re-computes the estimated values for the entire national footprint on a weekly basis, along with HPIs at various geography levels – from State, County, CBSA, down to Zip Code and Census Tract. Furthermore, the HPIs produced on any given date are based on proprietary valuation models which include over 90% of all sales transactions that will have been eventually reported through a four-week rolling period ending that date, taking advantage of Quantarium’s industry leading Data Services Platform (QDSP) to reduce the processing time lag to an absolute minimum. That allows Quantarium to provide the most current market insights, weeks faster than most other housing indices in the U.S. Learn more about TerraIndex™ HPI here.
The report for a given month is usually available on the second Wednesday of the following month, for example HPIs for the month of December 2022 were made available on Wednesday, January 11, 2023.
Located in Bellevue, WA, Quantarium was founded by a team of leading scientists and Ph.D.’s. The company has designed and developed an innovative and enabling set of AI and Visual Technologies currently being deployed across multiple real estate industry sectors. Quantarium is one of the most accurate sources of property insights for over 158 million U.S. properties and trusted by major mortgage lenders, financial institutes, builders, direct marketing agencies, and real estate professionals across the nation. With a technology suite that is different in kind, then degree, the company’s products and services uncover and capitalize on the core DNA of vertical industries. From genetic modeling property valuations and markets that understand and interpret real estate data as expressed through synthetic future populations, through to CV adjusted values, Quantarium offers real AI to drive real value.