July 12, 2023
Key Insights At National Level
The U.S. home values for combined single-family detached and single-family attached properties moved up by just +0.2% in June 2023 from a year ago. While not a significant increase, note that the same month last year marked the peak of the market, so we’re basically entering new record high territories.
On a month-over-month basis, non-seasonally adjusted home values increased by another 1.5%, continuing its rapid pace that started in February 2023.
Home values nationwide have now recovered all the losses since the June 2022 market peak, hovering again around record high levels. Affordability continues to be squeezed by low inventories and high interest rates, with home buyers trying to cope with these extremely difficult market conditions and adjust their expectations to a “new normal”.
Key Insights At State Level
On a year-over-year basis, approximately one in four states still show negative annual home value changes, in line with the previous three months.
On a non-seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, all states except Mississippi continued to register home value increases in June 2023. The pace of home value growth seems to be re-accelerating. There are 15 states, led by Maine and Michigan, that exhibited monthly home value appreciation above 2% for the month of June 2023. This is up from only four states in the previous month.
Only four states (Nevada, Arizona, Idaho and Utah) recorded home value decreases of more than -5% from the June 2022 market peak, compared to nine states last month. At the other end, Kentucky and South Dakota show home value gains above +5%.
Top 50 CBSA Markets
On a year-over-year basis, half of the top 50 CBSA markets recorded negative home value changes. The amplitude of these changes seems to be flattening out compared to recent months. San Francisco (CA) still stands out at -12.5%, followed by a group of five markets – Phoenix (AZ), Las Vegas (NV), San Jose (CA), Austin (TX) and Sacramento (CA) – with declines between -8% and -10%. All other decliners don’t exceed -5%. At the other end, Miami (FL), Cincinnati (OH) and Hartford (CT) show annual increases between 4% and 5%.
On a non-seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, all top 50 markets show home value appreciation in June 2023. However, there is a significant variability in performance; Austin (TX) was basically flat while Detroit (MI), Cincinnati (OH) and Charlotte (NC) recorded home value growth above 3%, at the other end.
The median monthly home value change among the top 50 CBSA markets is around +1.6%, which is below the +2% high mark recorded in April 2023 but moved up from the +1.2% recorded last month.
Why TerraIndex™ HPI
Our Home Price Index (HPI) is based on the proprietary Quantarium Valuation Model (QVM) value estimates for more than 100 million residential U.S. homes. QVM has been tested extensively in the last 5 years by some of the top third-party AVM testing agencies in the U.S. and has been consistently ranked at the top for both Accuracy and Hit Rate performance metrics. QVM was also recently approved by Fitch Ratings for Wall Street transactions. You can read the announcement here.
QVM re-computes the estimated values for the entire national footprint on a weekly basis, along with HPIs at various geography levels – from State, County, CBSA, down to Zip Code and Census Tract. Furthermore, the HPIs produced on any given date are based on proprietary valuation models which include over 90% of all sales transactions that will have been eventually reported through a four-week rolling period ending that date, taking advantage of Quantarium’s industry leading Data Services Platform (QDSP) to reduce the processing time lag to an absolute minimum. That allows TerraIndex™ HPI to provide the most current market insights, being weeks faster than most other housing indices in the U.S.
The report for a given month is usually available on the second Wednesday of the following month, for example HPIs for the month of December 2022 were made available on Wednesday, January 11, 2023.
Located in Bellevue, WA, Quantarium was founded by a team of leading scientists and Ph.D.’s. The company has designed and developed an innovative and enabling set of AI and Visual Technologies currently being deployed across multiple real estate industry sectors. Quantarium is one of the most accurate sources of property insights for over 158 million U.S. properties and trusted by major mortgage lenders, financial institutes, builders, direct marketing agencies, and real estate professionals across the nation. With a technology suite that is different in kind, then degree, the company’s products and services uncover and capitalize on the core DNA of vertical industries. From genetic modeling property valuations and markets that understand and interpret real estate data as expressed through synthetic future populations, through to CV adjusted values, Quantarium offers real AI to drive real value.