August 9, 2023
Key Insights At National Level
The U.S. home values for combined single-family detached and single-family attached properties increased by 2.3% in July 2023 from a year ago. TerraIndex™ HPI reached the $346,000 mark at the end of July, a new record high.
On a month-over-month basis, non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) home values increased by 1.1% in July 2023. On a seasonally adjusted basis, monthly home values increased by 0.8%.
The 2.3% year-over-year increase, although relatively low, might accelerate in coming months due to contrasting market trends from last year. While home values experienced significant depreciation in Q3-Q4 2022, the recent monthly trend has been upward, potentially amplifying year-over-year numbers even if monthly growth cools down through the rest of 2023.
Key Insights At State Level
On a year-over-year basis, only ten states are still showing negative annual home value depreciation. Idaho, Nevada, Arizona and Utah are still leading that group.
On a month-over-month basis, all states except the District of Columbia (DC) continued to register a non-seasonally adjusted home value increases in July 2023. The median monthly home value increase of 1.1% matches the national rate, suggesting a fairly balanced geography nationwide.
The pace of home value growth seems to be decelerating. There are eight states that recorded monthly home value appreciation above 2% in July, down from 15 states in June.
Top 50 CBSA Markets
On a year-over-year basis, home values in about half of the top 50 CBSA markets are still in negative territory. Austin (TX) shows the biggest drop at -8.7%, followed by San Francisco (CA), Las Vegas (NV) and Phoenix (AZ). At the other end, Milwaukee (WI), Cincinnati (OH) and Hartford (CT) show the highest home value increases year-over-year, around +8%.
On a non-seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, all top 50 markets show some home value appreciation in July 2023. There are three markets with monthly growth rates above 2%, namely Hartford (CT) at 2.2%, Phoenix (AZ) at 2.1% and Cleveland (OH) at 2.0%
The median monthly home value change among the top 50 CBSA markets in July 2023 is around +1.1%, among the lowest median value increases in the last five months.
Why TerraIndex™ HPI
Our Home Price Index (HPI) is based on the proprietary Quantarium Valuation Model (QVM) value estimates for more than 100 million residential U.S. homes. QVM has been tested extensively in the last 5 years by some of the top third-party AVM testing agencies in the U.S. and has been consistently ranked at the top for both Accuracy and Hit Rate performance metrics. QVM was also recently approved by Fitch Ratings for Wall Street transactions. You can read the announcement here.
QVM re-computes the estimated values for the entire national footprint on a weekly basis, along with HPIs at various geography levels – from State, County, CBSA, down to Zip Code and Census Tract. Furthermore, the HPIs produced on any given date are based on proprietary valuation models which include over 90% of all sales transactions that will have been eventually reported through a four-week rolling period ending that date, taking advantage of Quantarium’s industry leading Data Services Platform (QDSP) to reduce the processing time lag to an absolute minimum. That allows Quantarium to provide the most current market insights, weeks faster than most other housing indices in the U.S. Learn more about TerraIndex™ HPI here.
The report for a given month is usually available on the second Wednesday of the following month, for example HPIs for the month of December 2022 were made available on Wednesday, January 11, 2023.
Located in Bellevue, WA, Quantarium was founded by a team of leading scientists and Ph.D.’s. The company has designed and developed an innovative and enabling set of AI and Visual Technologies currently being deployed across multiple real estate industry sectors. Quantarium is one of the most accurate sources of property insights for over 158 million U.S. properties and trusted by major mortgage lenders, financial institutes, builders, direct marketing agencies, and real estate professionals across the nation. With a technology suite that is different in kind, then degree, the company’s products and services uncover and capitalize on the core DNA of vertical industries. From genetic modeling property valuations and markets that understand and interpret real estate data as expressed through synthetic future populations, through to CV adjusted values, Quantarium offers real AI to drive real value.